Full Answer

Predictions are cheap, but the trend line here is unusually clear. Apple shipped Intelligent Tracking Prevention in 2017 and has hardened it on a near-annual cadence ever since: partitioned then blocked third-party cookies, full third-party cookie blocking by default in 2020, a seven-day cap on script-writable storage, link-decoration defences, and bounce-tracking mitigations. Not one of those changes loosened tracking. The direction has been monotonic.

That consistency isn't an accident, it's positioning. Apple markets privacy as a feature it sells hardware on, which means ITP is a product commitment, not a temporary policy that might be walked back under industry pressure. Firefox and Brave have moved the same way. So the realistic planning assumption is that browser-based tracking keeps getting harder, not easier.

The useful conclusion is to stop waiting. Infrastructure that depends on the browser remembering an identifier is exposed to the next release notes; infrastructure that runs server-side, sets first-party cookies from your own server, and matches conversions against first-party data is not. The question worth asking isn't whether Safari relents, it's why your measurement is hostage to a browser vendor's roadmap in the first place. Build so that the answer to 'what did the latest Safari update break' is 'nothing'.