Full Answer

The mechanism matters more than the marketing name. Basic Consent Mode blocks Google tags entirely until consent is granted, so a declined banner means zero signal. Advanced mode loads the tags in a restricted state: no cookies are set and no identifiers stored, but cookieless pings still reach GA4 and Google Ads. Those pings are the raw material the modelling runs on.The model itself is behavioural inference. Google observes how consenting visitors on your property move from ad click to purchase, then estimates how many of your non-consenting visitors likely did the same. The output isn't a guess per user, it's an aggregate adjustment, and recovery rates vary with traffic volume, which is why the range runs 30 to 70 percent. Smaller WooCommerce stores sit at the low end because the model needs volume to find patterns.Here's the thing: modelling only works if the pings actually transmit. PPC Land documented Consent Mode v2 setups that look green in diagnostics while silently sending nothing, which means no pings, no model, no recovery. A misconfigured consent banner fails quietly, and the reports never tell you the pings stopped. For how to verify yours is really transmitting, see Your Consent Mode v2 looks green and transmits nothing.